On Solar Radiation
Busting the Climate and Energy Lies - a Limitless Series
At the time of writing this there are three days to go of the hypocritical globalist bean-feast known as COP 28 which has been taking place in the United Arab Emirates. It has been notable for the the opening statement by the COP President, Sultan Al Jaber, that there is no science which indicates that a phase-out of the so-called fossil fuels is required to restrict global warming to +1.5℃. He went on to say that such a phase-out would also not allow sustainable development unless the aim was to take the world back into caves.
Hallelujah! Someone has spoken a grain of truth and it has got all the committed climate activists around the globe in a flat spin. Meanwhile, the UN IPCC desert jamboree continues as we are enjoying a mid-December mild spell here in Southern England. However, we’ve already had two cold snaps and the winter hasn’t really got going yet. The UK government has recently raised the cap on household energy bills so we can expect our energy companies soon to jack up prices accordingly.
We may wonder too if we will have a continuous electricity supply come the evening. Our minds will turn to the sheer stupidity of successive elected governments which have failed to guarantee that lights will stay on and homes stay heated in winter. We run the risk of shivering in the dark with abundant supplies of unexploited, cheap energy in the form of coal and shale gas lying under our very feet.
Now, something else which is going to get the climate activists all in a flat spin in the coming decades is what is going on up there in that bright yellow orb which rises above the Eastern horizon every morning. The UN IPCC generally doesn’t want to know much about the Sun. It completely ignores the work done by Professor Valentina Zharkova and her team at the University of Northumbria in England. Professor Zharkova’s fields are applied mathematics, plasma physics, pattern recognition, solar-terrestrial physics and solar activity. What she has to say may be about to blow a hole in the climate-change nonsense which it will not survive, taking Net Zero down with it in the process of its disintegration.
Many people will be familiar with the 11-year cycle of solar activity in which the number and size of sunspots waxes and wanes. The cycles are not exactly 11 years; they may vary between about 9 and 14 years with 11 years being the mean. The overall number of sunspots also varies between successive solar cycles in a regular pattern. This gives rise not only to the waves of the solar cycles of sunspot activity but also to a longer term wave of the number or intensity of sunspots within successive solar cycles. This longer term wave has a duration from peak to trough of hundreds of years. Thus are created the succession of historic solar minimums such as the Maunder Grand Solar Minimum and also the later Dalton Minimum. The Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum occurred during the period known as the Little Ice Age. Professor Zharkova maintains that the Sun has just entered the Modern Grand Solar Minimum of Solar Cycles 25-27.
A brief explanation of solar cycles is appropriate here and the reader can probably do no better than take a look at the Wikipedia page on the subject. Numbering started when Rudolph Wolf designated Solar Cycle 1 to have started in 1755. He also created the sunspot number index, known as the Wolf Index, which is still in use today. The following table gives details of the numbered solar Cycles up to and including the present Cycle 25.
The note at the bottom states that the Sun Spot Number (SSN) for December 2022, 3 years into Cycle 25, is above Professor Zharkova’s prediction from which we could deduce that cycle 25 is a little more active than expected and thus not following the predicted pattern. As with all things in creation, some variability is to be expected.
Potentially as important as the solar radiation peaks associated with high sunspot activity is the Solar Magnetic field. Zharkova explains that sunspots almost always occur in pairs because each spot is in fact a local magnetic pole. There is one North and one South in each pair of sunspots which form a magnetic field 1000 times greater than the overall Solar Background Magnetic Force. All sunspots in a solar hemisphere have the same magnetic configuration. The sunspot magnetic force is not a supra-surface arc; it completes a circle within the solar mass. As a Solar Cycle progresses and the number of sunspots reduces the spots tend to move towards the solar equator.
A feature of the Solar Cycle is the solar dynamo, that is the reversal of the Solar Background Magnetic Force brought about by the local magnetic fields of the sunspots. In short, the magnetic North and South of the Sun invert so that the polarity of the Sun’s magnetic field is reversed at the end of the cycle. After two cycles, roughly 22 years give or take a couple of years, a magnetic cycle is complete and the magnetic North is back at the Solar North.
Professor Zharkova has discovered that when the magnetic North is at the Solar South Pole it correlates with increased volcanic activity on Earth and this could be of some significance.
She goes on to say that the Modern Grand Solar Minimum of approximately 2020-2053 will reduce global temperatures to such an extent that the world will enter another little ice age. The ice-caps will extend, glaciers will advance down valleys, the Thames and the Amsterdam canals may once again freeze in winter and there will be a significant enough cooling to adversely affect food production.
Already temperature has started to decrease from a peak in June 2019. We have seen that both polar ice caps are expanding and there was snow on the relatively low Carpathian mountains in July 2019 and again in August 2022. In Amman, Jordan in January 2020 a temperature of -2℃ was recorded along with snowfall, the first in 150 years. Arctic sea-ice thickness grew in 2018 and is continuing to grow. Even NASA and NOAA are forced to agree because the satellite data is unchallengeable. They have now admitted that the Sun is heading into a full-blown Grand Solar Minimum.
If we add to this the effect on terrestrial volcanic activity due to solar magnetic pole reversal there could be enough volcanic ash in the atmosphere to increase the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) and further contribute to cooling. Snow in June in the global North is possible and there may even be a year without a summer such as occurred in 1816 during the Dalton Minimum. Zharkova has predicted that the current cycle, 25, will be the lowest for sunspot activity in 200 years. However, it is in the next Solar Cycle, 26, which should start about 2028-2031 and which marks the end of the Modern Solar Maximum, that matters will become interesting.
It’s here that Professor Zharkova’s predictions may have a real bite. The reverse polarity of the Sun’s magnetic field will occur in Cycle 26 so there may well be a volcanic eruption maximum between 2031 and 2042. Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991, also during a period of solar Southern polarity, put enough ash into the atmosphere to reduce global temperatures by 0.5℃ at the surface. Going by past major eruptions that could have an effect lasting between a few months and over a year.
The next factor the Professor talks about is Solar Inertial Motion. Having found that none of the Milankovitch cycles would fit what she observed, she found a fit with the Hallstatt Cycle (also known as the Bray Cycle) which has a periodicity of about 2,300 years. In the course of a Hallstatt cycle the distance between the Sun and Earth varies. In simple terms what happens is that the planets do not revolve around the centre of the Sun. They revolve around a combined planet-Sun centre of gravity called the barycentre.
The startling thing is that the Sun, due to the influences of the major planets, also revolves around this barycentre so on the upswing of the Hallstatt cycle the distance between the Earth and the Sun reduces. As we know, if a body goes closer to a source of heat and light it will receive more intense radiation; thus on the upswing of the Hallstatt cycle the Earth receives progressively more solar energy and warms up. This has been happening since the end of the Maunder Minimum and through the Dalton Minimum; it is a plausible explanation for the gentle warming which has been observed in recent times. We are at present about 300-350 years into the Modern Hallstatt Cycle.
Once the forthcoming little ice age is over the Earth will again experience warming, possibly quite rapid warming, due to the continuing upswing of the Hallstatt Cycle. This should lead to a few hundred years which will be very similar to the Medieval Warm Period before it starts to cool once more. And here’s the thing: Carbon dioxide has absolutely nothing to do with it.
The Anthropogenic Global Warming cult refuses to accept the closure of the Sun and Earth in Solar Inertial Motion, despite it being a well-known phenomenon in astro-physics. Well, of course they don’t, for obvious reasons. The IPCC sails on in total disregard of the work of Professor Zharkova. But, if she is right, we’ll know within 10 years, possibly even within 5 years, and the whole false rationale for Net Zero policies will have been completely trashed.
The bad news is that people don’t have long to prepare. There can be little confidence that any UK government likely to be elected in the near future will produce a satisfactory energy and food security plan to see us through the roughly 35 years that Professor Zharkova expects the Modern Grand Solar Minimum to last. Those who are unprepared for this will find life hard. We know that cold kills far more people than heat does so an unreliable energy supply in the Grand Solar Minimum winters coupled with likely food shortages and price increases will mean that we are going to see an increase in mortality.
So, get ready to fell those recently planted trees for fuel, buy some animal traps, invest in fur-lined parkas and mukluks and get a team of huskies you can put on top of your bed at night.
If you would like to hear it from the horse’s mouth, Professor Zharkova appeared in a Tom Nelson podcast about a year ago which you can listen to here. It’s 1 hour 22 minutes long. She has a website where you can read about her work and where there is also a more recent recorded interview under the title ‘The Elephant in The Climate Change Space’.